What to do next to control the 2019-nCoV epidemic? (2020/02/04)

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection can lead to acute resolved or fatal pneumonia. On the basis of knowledge of other coronaviruses, the main route of human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is probably through respiratory droplets. As of Feb 4, 2020, statistical data show that the outbreak constitutes an epidemic threat in China, where the exponential increase in patients has reached 20 438 confirmed cases, with 2788 (13·64%) patients in critical condition and 425 (2·08%) deaths; 23 214 additional suspected cases have also been identified so far. The most affected city, Wuhan, and related regions in Hubei province of China have reported 13 522 confirmed patients (66·16% of total cases) and 414 deaths from 2019 nCoV infection (97·41% of total deaths in China). 632 patients with confirmed infection have recovered and have been discharged from hospital. However, the downward turning point for new cases of infection has not been observed yet (figure). Notably, 159 confirmed cases have been reported in 23 other countries beyond China, including Japan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, the USA, Malaysia, and Germany. Because of the seriousness of this outbreak, WHO declared it a public health emergency of international concern on Jan 30, 2020, followed by the USA announcing a public health emergency on Jan 31, 2020.

Author: Fu-Sheng Wang, Chao Zhang

Link: https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620303007.pdf