Potential for global spread of a novel coronavirus from China (2020/01/27)

A novel coronavirus emerging from Wuhan, China in late December 2019 is currently spreading
to other provinces in mainland China and international destinations across East Asia. At the time
of writing, cases have been confirmed in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Macau, and multiple
cities in Guangdong province, with more than 500 cases confirmed across China.
1
Furthermore,
several cases have spread internationally via air travel2
to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand,
and the United States. A recent modelling study concluded that for these international
exportations to be observed, the outbreak in China should be substantially larger than is reflected
by confirmed case counts.3 Currently, many public health interventions are based on scenarios
where Wuhan is the primary source of new cases.
4 While there are currently no documented
transmission chains outside of the Wuhan region, should a scenario arise where this novel
coronavirus spreads more broadly to and within other Chinese cities, we evaluated how global
patterns of disease dispersion might change.

Author: Isaac I Bogoch, Alexander Watts, Andrea Thomas-Bachli,et al.

Link: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa011/5716260